How insurers and MGAs can combat high flooding risks in Ireland
5 minute read
As a result of global climate change, it is predicted that flooding will become more severe. Richard Cantwell from Gamma LI explores the effects this will have on property in Ireland and how data can help reduce your risk exposure.
Climate change projections
Climate change has been a hot topic for years. The most recent reports, such as the highly influential AR6 Climate Change 2021 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), indicate that extreme weather events are likely to become much more frequent towards the end of this century.
Our climate is changing, and the effects will be widespread and varied across Ireland. Warmer oceans mean increased rainfall. Storms are becoming stronger and more frequent, summer heatwaves hotter and more common, with droughts and hot weather spells, and winter months significantly wetter. Taken together, these potential changes could affect British and Irish properties much sooner than expected.
Location intelligence
The potential effects described above present significant financial risks to property, as they could cause flooding, subsidence, and storm damage. Location intelligence can help identify, quantify, and reduce that risk, making it useful for decision makers, investors, and regulators.
Gamma Location Intelligence (Gamma LI) works closely with recognised experts in the domains of flooding and subsidence to assess the likely effects on property due to the changing climate. Richard Cantwell, Principal Consultant at Gamma LI, who models those effects on British and Irish property, said:
“Global warming is already affecting our daily lives, but its effects will become far more marked in the years to come. As well as flooding, climate change is increasing the risk of subsidence. The dry summer in 2018 saw massive increases in insurance losses. While it is hard to predict the rate at which such scenarios will unfold, it is certain that infrastructure must be put in place to cope with the changing environment, protect the landscape, and reduce location risk.”
How insurers and MGAs can combat high flooding risks in Ireland
5 minute read
As a result of global climate change, it is predicted that flooding will become more severe. Richard Cantwell from Gamma LI explores the effects this will have on property in Ireland and how data can help reduce your risk exposure.
Climate change projections
Climate change has been a hot topic for years. The most recent reports, such as the highly influential AR6 Climate Change 2021 report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), indicate that extreme weather events are likely to become much more frequent towards the end of this century.
Our climate is changing, and the effects will be widespread and varied across Ireland. Warmer oceans mean increased rainfall. Storms are becoming stronger and more frequent, summer heatwaves hotter and more common, with droughts and hot weather spells, and winter months significantly wetter. Taken together, these potential changes could affect British and Irish properties much sooner than expected.
Location intelligence
The potential effects described above present significant financial risks to property, as they could cause flooding, subsidence, and storm damage. Location intelligence can help identify, quantify, and reduce that risk, making it useful for decision makers, investors, and regulators.
Gamma Location Intelligence (Gamma LI) works closely with recognised experts in the domains of flooding and subsidence to assess the likely effects on property due to the changing climate. Richard Cantwell, Principal Consultant at Gamma LI, who models those effects on British and Irish property, said:
“Global warming is already affecting our daily lives, but its effects will become far more marked in the years to come. As well as flooding, climate change is increasing the risk of subsidence. The dry summer in 2018 saw massive increases in insurance losses. While it is hard to predict the rate at which such scenarios will unfold, it is certain that infrastructure must be put in place to cope with the changing environment, protect the landscape, and reduce location risk.”
| County | Residential Impacted | Commercial Impacted | Total Impacted | Impact as a % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clare | 7,376 | 1,320 | 8,696 | 13.3% |
| Cork | 2,231 | 428 | 2,659 | 1.0% |
| Donegal | 1,945 | 574 | 2,519 | 2.6% |
| Dublin | 21,513 | 1,922 | 23,435 | 3.9% |
| Galway | 3,823 | 678 | 4,501 | 3.5% |
| Kerry | 2,133 | 284 | 2,417 | 2.9% |
| Limerick | 4,741 | 685 | 5,426 | 5.8% |
| Louth | 10,280 | 968 | 11,248 | 19.0% |
| Mayo | 832 | 188 | 1,020 | 1.3% |
| Meath | 2,233 | 93 | 2,326 | 2.8% |
| Sligo | 418 | 192 | 610 | 1.6% |
| Waterford | 2,281 | 443 | 2,724 | 4.5% |
| Wexford | 1,234 | 186 | 1,420 | 1.8% |
| Wicklow | 1,194 | 377 | 1,571 | 2.5% |
Flooding
As a result of global climate change, it is predicted that flooding will become more severe across Europe, with Ireland particularly affected. In Ireland, the rise in sea level and the more frequent and extreme storms will result in as many as 70,000 addresses being exposed to damage from coastal flooding. Some 88% of these addresses are residential, amounting to approximately 62,000 homes. The estimated insurance exposure is over €2 billion.
The most affected counties
In counties such as Louth and Clare, over 10% of addresses are at risk. In Dublin, over 23,000 addresses are in the risk zone.
Gamma LI’s analysis showed that Dublin will be the most affected county in terms of the number of addresses expected to be impacted by extreme coastal water levels, with some 23,435 properties at risk. This translates as 21,513 residential addresses and 1,922 commercial properties.
Louth (11,248) will be second most affected, with some 10,280 residential and 968 commercial properties predicted to be impacted, followed by Clare with 7,376 homes and 1,320 businesses at risk. Limerick (5,426) and Galway (4,501) rounded out the top five areas expected to be most impacted by increased flood risk as a result of climate change.
However, in terms of the proportion of addresses that are expected to be affected, Louth will be the worst with 19% of its addresses due to be impacted. The next highest is Clare (13.3%). In contrast, only 3.9% of Dublin’s addresses will be at risk.
According to Barry O’Dwyer, the lead research scientist at MaREI in UCC:
“This work builds on existing information and data for Ireland to provide a national scale estimate of the economic costs associated with projected changes in sea level and in the frequency and intensity of coastal storms. It highlights Ireland’s vulnerability to climate change and further illustrates the pressing need to take a strategic approach to development planning in our coastal areas which will be at increasing risk as the century unfolds.”
Flooding
As a result of global climate change, it is predicted that flooding will become more severe across Europe, with Ireland particularly affected. In Ireland, the rise in sea level and the more frequent and extreme storms will result in as many as 70,000 addresses being exposed to damage from coastal flooding. Some 88% of these addresses are residential, amounting to approximately 62,000 homes. The estimated insurance exposure is over €2 billion.
The most affected counties
In counties such as Louth and Clare, over 10% of addresses are at risk. In Dublin, over 23,000 addresses are in the risk zone.
Gamma LI’s analysis showed that Dublin will be the most affected county in terms of the number of addresses expected to be impacted by extreme coastal water levels, with some 23,435 properties at risk. This translates as 21,513 residential addresses and 1,922 commercial properties.
Louth (11,248) will be second most affected, with some 10,280 residential and 968 commercial properties predicted to be impacted, followed by Clare with 7,376 homes and 1,320 businesses at risk. Limerick (5,426) and Galway (4,501) rounded out the top five areas expected to be most impacted by increased flood risk as a result of climate change.
However, in terms of the proportion of addresses that are expected to be affected, Louth will be the worst with 19% of its addresses due to be impacted. The next highest is Clare (13.3%). In contrast, only 3.9% of Dublin’s addresses will be at risk.
According to Barry O’Dwyer, the lead research scientist at MaREI in UCC:
“This work builds on existing information and data for Ireland to provide a national scale estimate of the economic costs associated with projected changes in sea level and in the frequency and intensity of coastal storms. It highlights Ireland’s vulnerability to climate change and further illustrates the pressing need to take a strategic approach to development planning in our coastal areas which will be at increasing risk as the century unfolds.”
| County | Residential Impacted | Commercial Impacted | Total Impacted | Impact as a % of Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clare | 7,376 | 1,320 | 8,696 | 13.3% |
| Cork | 2,231 | 428 | 2,659 | 1.0% |
| Donegal | 1,945 | 574 | 2,519 | 2.6% |
| Dublin | 21,513 | 1,922 | 23,435 | 3.9% |
| Galway | 3,823 | 678 | 4,501 | 3.5% |
| Kerry | 2,133 | 284 | 2,417 | 2.9% |
| Limerick | 4,741 | 685 | 5,426 | 5.8% |
| Louth | 10,280 | 968 | 11,248 | 19.0% |
| Mayo | 832 | 188 | 1,020 | 1.3% |
| Meath | 2,233 | 93 | 2,326 | 2.8% |
| Sligo | 418 | 192 | 610 | 1.6% |
| Waterford | 2,281 | 443 | 2,724 | 4.5% |
| Wexford | 1,234 | 186 | 1,420 | 1.8% |
| Wicklow | 1,194 | 377 | 1,571 | 2.5% |
Subsidence
While flood risk is widely discussed, less attention has been paid to the potential future effects of climate change on ground movement. Drier and hotter summers are already reducing soil moisture levels, leading to shrinkage, while intense rainfall and wetter winters lead to swelling, particularly in certain types of soil. Together, this shrink-swell process is a leading cause of property damage and subsidence. Using existing data we can begin to quantify the potential cost of the property damage that these changes may bring. Gamma LI recently partnered with Terrafirma, a company which helps homebuyers, lenders, and insurance companies to assess ground hazards and provide adequate protection cover.
Subsidence
While flood risk is widely discussed, less attention has been paid to the potential future effects of climate change on ground movement. Drier and hotter summers are already reducing soil moisture levels, leading to shrinkage, while intense rainfall and wetter winters lead to swelling, particularly in certain types of soil. Together, this shrink-swell process is a leading cause of property damage and subsidence. Using existing data we can begin to quantify the potential cost of the property damage that these changes may bring. Gamma LI recently partnered with Terrafirma, a company which helps homebuyers, lenders, and insurance companies to assess ground hazards and provide adequate protection cover.
Managing the risk
Measuring true exposure in property risk is a complicated subject. Adding the environmental effects of climate change makes it even more complex. The insurance sector faces many difficulties, including how best to access the right data at the right time, to enable underwriters to make informed decisions quickly.
Accuracy and consistency have always been priorities at Gamma LI, which is a one-stop shop for property-level risk data. Our insurance solutions are backed by our partnerships with suppliers such as JBA Risk, Ambiental Risk Management, BGS, Metswift, Terrafirma, and the Ordnance Survey.
Drier summers are leading to more cases of subsidence. Flooding will become much more prevalent due to wetter winters, rises in sea levels, and more intense storms. These changes will not be evenly distributed, and some areas will become newly affected.
We are beginning to see the effects of global warming. But, the data available today, together with the address lookup and enrichment services we deliver in partnership with Open GI, can help insurers and MGAs to reduce their risk exposure.
Managing the risk
Measuring true exposure in property risk is a complicated subject. Adding the environmental effects of climate change makes it even more complex. The insurance sector faces many difficulties, including how best to access the right data at the right time, to enable underwriters to make informed decisions quickly.
Accuracy and consistency have always been priorities at Gamma LI, which is a one-stop shop for property-level risk data. Our insurance solutions are backed by our partnerships with suppliers such as JBA Risk, Ambiental Risk Management, BGS, Metswift, Terrafirma, and the Ordnance Survey.
Drier summers are leading to more cases of subsidence. Flooding will become much more prevalent due to wetter winters, rises in sea levels, and more intense storms. These changes will not be evenly distributed, and some areas will become newly affected.
We are beginning to see the effects of global warming. But, the data available today, together with the address lookup and enrichment services we deliver in partnership with Open GI, can help insurers and MGAs to reduce their risk exposure.
About Gamma Location Intelligence
Gamma Location Intelligence (Gamma LI) is a cloud-hosted solutions provider that integrates software, data, and services to help its clients reduce risk through location intelligence. Established in Dublin, Ireland in 1993, and with offices in Manchester, UK and Bilbao, Spain, the company has expanded to become a global provider of cloud-native location intelligent systems and services. Gamma LI’s Perilfinder™ risk mapping platform provides property underwriters with access to trusted property-level risk data easily, quickly, and accurately.
To learn more about Gamma LI’s risk assessment solutions, please get in touch.
